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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010
200 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH A 17/0330Z
ASCAT OVERPASS AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA...INDICATE THAT TD-02E HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IF ONE EXISTS AT ALL. CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE ABOUT 00Z DUE TO INCREASED
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM A MASSIVE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION OVER
BOTH THE ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 25 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SEVERAL WESTERLY 20-25 ASCAT
WIND VECTORS NOTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW BASED ON
EARLIER MICROWAVE FIXES. ALL OF THE MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL MEXICO
...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TD-02E MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD BE INFLUENCED OR EVEN ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS
IS REFLECTED BY A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THOSE TIMES.  
 
A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. BY 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE LGEM AND SHIFOR MODELS.

IF A WEAKENING TREND BECOMES MORE EVIDENT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 15.5N  97.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.8N  98.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 16.2N  99.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N 101.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N 102.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 105.1W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 108.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
 
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