ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010 200 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSATING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE 25-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/3 OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST. THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH MAINTAINS THE DEPRESSION AS A SEPARATE SYSTEM...TAKES THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT NOT BE SO FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 15.0N 95.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 15.1N 96.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.3N 97.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 98.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 15.7N 99.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 101.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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