Tropical Depression TOMAS

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
0900 UTC WED NOV 03 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.  TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  75.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  75.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  75.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N  76.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N  76.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.3N  76.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N  75.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.0N  69.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  75.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 
 
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