Tropical Storm TOMAS

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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010
 
TOMAS HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WITHERED AWAY...DUE TO ABOUT 35 KT OF WESTERLY
SHEAR...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR
THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...BASED
ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND WIND REPORTS FROM BUOY 41047.  TOMAS ALSO APPEARS TO
BE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING FURTHER...TO NEAR
50 KT IN 12 HOURS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 40 PERCENT...AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE
TOMAS TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
AN 0624 UTC AMSU OVERPASS AND A 1014 UTC SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 50 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE.  THESE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT TOMAS HAS SLOWED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY AND TURNED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...
RESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 005/5.  THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF A STRENGTHENING LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS MUCH LARGER LOW SHOULD ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
TOMAS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 26.0N  69.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  68.7W    45 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.9N  66.5W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 27.9N  63.9W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  61.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 36.0N  57.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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