Tropical Storm TOMAS

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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 PM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010
 
TOMAS HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY AN
EYE MAY HAVE TRIED TO FORM.  A PARTIAL EYEWALL WAS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE 1743Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE IS SHOWING LESS BANDING CHARACTERISTICS.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF
TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.
 
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 INDICATES THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT
OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS NOW IMPACTING THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF TOMAS.  WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAS REACHED THAT
LOCATION.  THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS APPEARS...FOR THE MOMENT...TO BE
UNAFFECTED BY THE COOLER/DRIER AIR.  IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL
SOON BEGIN ITS FINAL DEMISE WITH BOTH THE FRONTAL AIRMASS AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT BELOW BOTH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD DROP BELOW
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AFTER 48 H...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF
THE ANTICIPATED VERY STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR REMOVES ALL OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TOMAS COULD UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INSTEAD OF DEGENERATION...ESPECIALLY IF IT
GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE STRONGLY INTERACTS WITH A
BAROCLINIC LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
 
TOMAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING 30/13...AS IT IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED
BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD RATHER ABRUPTLY DECELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST IN ABOUT
12-24 H...ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS EITHER DECOUPLED FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR COMPLETELY ELIMINATED.  THEREAFTER...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST BY
THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICK AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 24.2N  70.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 25.2N  69.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 25.6N  68.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.8N  67.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  64.9W    35 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 28.5N  59.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 31.5N  55.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
 
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