Tropical Storm TOMAS

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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED AT ONE
POINT THIS EVENING...BUT A LINEAR BAND HAS RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED
ABOUT 60-90 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.6/2.7 FROM THE OBJECTIVE
ADT.  ALTHOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
CYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24-36 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AND TOMAS WILL BE MOVING OVER A REGION OF INCREASED
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.  ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TOMAS SHOULD
RE-STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 3.  THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND
NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS CEASED MOVING
SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10.  TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS...IN ITS WEAKENED STATE...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO.  ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...THE DEEPER
VORTEX SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.  SINCE THE HWRF AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND
THE NOGAPS DOES NOT EVEN PULL TOMAS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...
GFDL...AND UKMET.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
WEST ON THIS CYCLE...MAINLY IN THE DAY 2 AND 3 TIME FRAME...AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 13.5N  70.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.7N  72.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.9N  73.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.2N  74.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N  75.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  75.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.5N  73.5W    80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N  70.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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