Hurricane SHARY

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HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010
 
SHARY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 85-GHZ
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHARY IS BEING
HELD AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
OVER COOLER WATER.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SHARY INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE SHARY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  THE LATTER SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE
CURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
055/35. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SHARY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 35.9N  55.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 38.0N  50.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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