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Hurricane PAULA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010               
0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       4       9      15      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  1       6      13      15      12      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  75      70      59      49      37      NA      NA
HURRICANE       24      23      23      28      37      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       23      21      20      21      25      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        1       2       3       4       8      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       1       1       2       3      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       1      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    50KT    35KT    25KT    20KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  10(20)   8(28)   X(28)   X(28)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   3( 4)  12(16)   9(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  11(16)   X(16)   X(16)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 63   3(66)   X(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 14   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
HAVANA         34  1  23(24)  31(55)   7(62)   4(66)   X(66)   X(66)
HAVANA         50  X   4( 4)  14(18)   4(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1  16(17)  15(32)   6(38)   4(42)   X(42)   X(42)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  1   2( 3)  12(15)  17(32)   9(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  13(21)   X(21)   X(21)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   4( 8)   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC