Hurricane PAULA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
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HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
2100 UTC WED OCT 13 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 4 14 29 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 8 25 39 39 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 57 76 64 43 29 NA NA
HURRICANE 43 16 7 4 3 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 41 14 6 3 3 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 2 2 1 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 56 10(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 16 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
HAVANA 34 1 11(12) 31(43) 4(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51)
HAVANA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 2 8(10) 11(21) 2(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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