Hurricane PAULA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010               
1745 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1745Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       2       6      11      22
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       2       1      12      20      29
TROPICAL STORM   1       6      11      26      50      50      40
HURRICANE       99      93      86      71      33      19      10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       11      29      31      41      24      15       8
HUR CAT 2       59      41      33      18       6       3       1
HUR CAT 3       27      19      18       9       3       1       1
HUR CAT 4        2       3       3       2       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       1       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT    95KT    95KT    85KT    70KT    60KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   5(13)   3(16)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   2(19)
 
COZUMEL MX     34 74  21(95)   1(96)   1(97)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COZUMEL MX     50 13  46(59)   4(63)   3(66)   4(70)   1(71)   X(71)
COZUMEL MX     64 10  42(52)   3(55)   2(57)   3(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
BELIZE         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   2(12)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   2(12)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  2  28(30)  26(56)  16(72)   9(81)   1(82)   1(83)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   3( 3)  13(16)  17(33)   9(42)   3(45)   1(46)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  10(18)   8(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 
HAVANA         34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   7(25)   3(28)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   7(13)  12(25)   7(32)   3(35)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)   2(13)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   3(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
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