Hurricane PAULA
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HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 2 7 14 27
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 3 4 17 23 29
TROPICAL STORM 11 29 35 39 53 50 38
HURRICANE 89 69 60 55 23 13 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 78 54 45 36 17 10 4
HUR CAT 2 9 11 11 13 4 2 1
HUR CAT 3 2 3 3 4 2 1 X
HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 2 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 75KT 75KT 75KT 60KT 50KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 2(16)
COZUMEL MX 34 59 29(88) 1(89) 3(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94)
COZUMEL MX 50 7 37(44) 5(49) 3(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57)
COZUMEL MX 64 4 24(28) 3(31) 2(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
BELIZE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
GUANAJA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 20(21) 24(45) 19(64) 10(74) 1(75) 1(76)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) 15(26) 9(35) 2(37) 1(38)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) X(18) 1(19)
HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 6(21) 2(23)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 10(21) 6(27) 3(30)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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