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Hurricane PAULA (Text)

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HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THE BAY ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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