Hurricane PAULA

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HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  85.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  15SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  85.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  86.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.6N  84.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.1N  83.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.5N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.1N  79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  85.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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