Tropical Storm PAULA

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  84.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  84.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  84.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.9N  85.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.4N  86.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...105NE  75SE  60SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.4N  86.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N  86.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N  85.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N  83.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  84.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 
 
NNNN