ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 THE CENTER OF PAULA MOVED OVER CUBA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA AROUND NOON TODAY AND PRODUCED A WIND GUST FROM THE NORTH OF 68 MPH...110 KM/HR...AT THE WEATHER STATION IN LA PALMA. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME GRADUALLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS TO THE NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO BOTH SHEAR AND THE EFFECT OF LAND. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN THE AREA JUST MEASURED WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS OVER WATER TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAVANA...BUT THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 090 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER HAVANA AND CENTRAL CUBA. HOWEVER...THE CENTER COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND THIS POSSIBILITY EXISTS IF PAULA DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND CALLS FOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...KEEPING PAULA ON AN EASTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 22.8N 82.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 15/1800Z 23.0N 79.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 23.0N 78.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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