ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
0900 UTC WED SEP 29 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 4 5 11 16 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 51 29 37 35 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 44 62 48 45 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 4 5 4 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 4 3 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 35KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAYPORT NS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 3 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
W PALM BEACH 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 9 17(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
MARATHON FL 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
KEY WEST FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:20 UTC