Tropical Storm MATTHEW
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TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1500 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 9 18 29 43 50 54
TROP DEPRESSION 45 44 45 35 20 11 8
TROPICAL STORM 52 44 34 32 30 28 25
HURRICANE 2 3 3 4 7 11 13
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 2 3 6 8 10
HUR CAT 2 X 1 X X 1 3 2
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
BELIZE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 2(16) 2(18)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 3(18) 1(19) 2(21)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X 16(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) 2(21) X(21)
GUANAJA 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
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FORECASTER AVILA
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