Tropical Depression FIFTEEN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1800 UTC THU SEP 23 2010
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 3 4 7 19 24 25
TROP DEPRESSION 34 22 17 20 17 4 6
TROPICAL STORM 63 70 64 49 38 31 37
HURRICANE 2 5 15 24 26 42 33
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 13 19 17 28 22
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 4 6 9 8
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 2 4 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 70KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 10(22)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 12(33)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 11(40) 7(47)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 4(20)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) 5(30)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 23(48) 4(52) 3(55)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 4(26) 1(27)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22) 2(24) 2(26)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 4(12)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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