Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1500 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  92.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  50SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  92.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  92.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  75NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  92.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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