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Tropical Storm KARL


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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  85.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 25NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 25NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  85.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  84.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N  87.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.7N  91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N  96.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  85.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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