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Tropical Storm KARL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
 
THE CENTER OF KARL EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 0330 AND
0400 UTC AFTER MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
LAND...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
WIND FIELD WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN UP AFTER MOVING OVER WATER. 
KARL SEEMS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ALSO...
GIVEN THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...KARL WILL
LIKELY HAVE MORE TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO. 
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT AROUND THE
TIME OF LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT.  KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS WILL STEER KARL WILL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...HAS SLOWED
AND SHIFTED SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N  91.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N  93.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  94.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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