Tropical Storm JULIA

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TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010
 
CORRECTED TO ADD IGOR

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF JULIA
JUST BENEATH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY. THE SHEARED
CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR PRODUCED BY A
STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IGOR.  SUBSEQUENT
BANDING CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING...AND THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO
65 AND 60 KT RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT.  THE GLOBAL AND THE SHIPS MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN BY THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE...WITH THE CYCLONE ULTIMATELY BECOMING
ABSORBED IN 96 HOURS BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IGOR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/14.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
TO THE NORTHEAST OF JULIA.  THROUGH DAY 3...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND NORTHEASTWARD
AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTERWARD...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH JULIA BECOMING ABSORBED BY IGOR...GENERALLY IN 96 HOURS...OR
EARLIER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 26.0N  49.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 28.1N  50.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 31.0N  52.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 33.5N  52.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 35.5N  50.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 39.0N  46.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
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FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
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