ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED THAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE EYE. A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE CLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS OBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0530Z 16.9N 31.3W 110 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W 120 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 37.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.4N 40.8W 90 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 51.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH NNNN
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