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Hurricane IGOR (Text)

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HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010
 
BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IGOR APPEARS TO BE COMPLETING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.  IN ADDITION...INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH
AN OUTER RING OF CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PROMINENT.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB REMAIN AT T6.0/6.5 AND HAVE FALLEN TO T5.0/5.5
FROM SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T6.3.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS OR
SO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY
IF THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
SHOW WEAKENING TO CATEGORY 1 OR 2 STRENGTH BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

IGOR IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND IS BEING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A LARGE BUT FLAT
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST.  SINCE THE
TROUGH IS NOT THAT SHARP...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SHARPLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH ITS CENTER PASSING NEAR
BERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
BUT DOES SHOW SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN
SINCE THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 20.2N  56.5W   115 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.8N  57.6W   115 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.7N  59.2W   115 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.6N  60.8W   115 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N  62.6W   115 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 27.5N  65.0W   105 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 31.5N  65.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 36.5N  60.5W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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