Tropical Depression HERMINE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THE
INTENSITY OF HERMINE HAS DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS OF
00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LARGE PATCH OF 50-60 KT DOPPLER
VELOCITIES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF HERMINE
JUST NORTH OF BRADY TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HIGHER GUST DIFFERENTIAL
THAN USUAL IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/14. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. HERMINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF A LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF STATES. BY 48 HOURS...THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A WARM
FRONTAL ZONE AND ALSO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COULD INFUSE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC ENERGY INTO
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT WOULD AMPLIFY IT AFTER THE 48-HOUR
TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS IN THESE AREAS. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HERMINE.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION 
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...
BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 31.6N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 33.5N  99.7W    20 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 35.8N  99.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 38.0N  97.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 39.7N  94.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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