Tropical Storm EARL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 6 8 12 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 3 13 32 29 25 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 91 77 58 56 52 NA NA
HURRICANE 6 9 5 8 12 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 8 4 6 9 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 1 X 1 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 11 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
BURGEO NFLD 34 32 11(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
BURGEO NFLD 50 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 69 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
PTX BASQUES 50 21 8(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
PTX BASQUES 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
EDDY POINT NS 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
EDDY POINT NS 50 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
SYDNEY NS 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
SYDNEY NS 50 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
SABLE ISLAND 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HALIFAX NS 50 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
HALIFAX NS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
YARMOUTH NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
MONCTON NB 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ST JOHN NB 34 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
ST JOHN NB 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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