Tropical Storm EARL

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       2       3       9      14      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  2      17      22      29      27      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  86      76      66      55      49      NA      NA
HURRICANE       12       5       9       7      11      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12       4       7       6       9      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        1       1       1       1       2      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    45KT    45KT    40KT    40KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X  15(15)   8(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X  30(30)   7(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  2  39(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X  32(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  1  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
HALIFAX NS     34 17  57(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
HALIFAX NS     50  X  34(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 88   5(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
YARMOUTH NS    50 36  22(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
YARMOUTH NS    64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONCTON NB     34  4  58(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
MONCTON NB     50  X  25(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MONCTON NB     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ST JOHN NB     34 19  42(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
ST JOHN NB     50  1  20(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
EASTPORT ME    34 28  16(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
EASTPORT ME    50  3   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34 21   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 75   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
HYANNIS MA     50 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NANTUCKET MA   50 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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