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HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 4
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 8
TROPICAL STORM 1 1 1 1 5 13 40
HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 95 85 48
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 21 14 8 11 18 30 30
HUR CAT 2 60 36 21 20 24 25 12
HUR CAT 3 16 40 48 40 33 22 5
HUR CAT 4 1 7 19 23 16 6 1
HUR CAT 5 1 1 3 5 4 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 100KT 110KT 115KT 115KT 105KT 90KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PONCE 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 2 8(10) 21(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
SAN JUAN 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 4 34(38) 20(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT CROIX 34 4 24(28) 10(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT CROIX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 50 44(94) 1(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 60(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 1 39(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 52 27(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 3 18(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARBUDA 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BARBUDA 50 56 21(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
BARBUDA 64 25 26(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
ANTIGUA 34 85 5(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
ANTIGUA 50 17 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
ANTIGUA 64 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GUADELOUPE 34 42 3(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
GUADELOUPE 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AVES 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DOMINICA 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MARTINIQUE 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:10 UTC