Tropical Storm EARL
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TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
TROPICAL STORM 82 46 23 15 14 12 22
HURRICANE 16 53 76 84 85 87 75
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 14 44 50 39 31 29 32
HUR CAT 2 1 7 19 25 25 26 22
HUR CAT 3 X 1 5 16 21 23 17
HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 4 7 7 4
HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 100KT 100KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 2(24) X(24)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 23(32) 2(34) X(34)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 15(24) 1(25) X(25)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 14(56) 1(57) X(57)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) X(30) X(30)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 33(57) 4(61) X(61) X(61)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18)
ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 24(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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