Tropical Storm EARL
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TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 6 7 5 2 3 2 2
TROPICAL STORM 90 78 56 38 25 18 17
HURRICANE 5 15 39 60 72 80 81
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 13 32 39 37 33 31
HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 14 19 23 23
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 5 11 18 20
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 3 5 6
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 2(35)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) 1(26)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38) X(38)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 10(30) 1(31)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER AVILA
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