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Tropical Storm EARL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
 
RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  46.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE  30SE  15SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  46.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  45.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N  48.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N  52.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N  58.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 85NE  75SE  60SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.5N  62.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  46.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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