Tropical Storm COLIN
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TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 2 3 6 8 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 34 22 17 13 13 19 NA
TROPICAL STORM 64 71 69 63 57 54 NA
HURRICANE X 5 12 22 24 18 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 5 11 17 18 15 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 4 4 3 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 2 1 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 45KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 22(54) X(54)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BERMUDA 34 9 55(64) 5(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
BERMUDA 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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