Tropical Depression BONNIE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP
CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 
 
THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED
STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING
BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF
BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN
THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 26.2N  81.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  84.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  87.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
 
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