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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression ONE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010               
0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       3      10      18      19      19      27
TROP DEPRESSION 18      22      35      36      16      15      19
TROPICAL STORM  79      70      51      42      50      48      40
HURRICANE        2       6       4       5      15      19      15
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       5       3       4      11      14      12
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       1       3       3       2
HUR CAT 3        1       1       X       X       1       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    35KT    35KT    45KT    50KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
GFMX 287N 884W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   6(19)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)  13(21)   8(29)   2(31)   1(32)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 
BELIZE         34  1  13(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)   1(21)   X(21)
BELIZE         50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34 10   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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