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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
AT 2200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 4 5 18 27 25 30
TROP DEPRESSION 39 25 21 33 29 24 22
TROPICAL STORM 58 66 65 44 37 43 39
HURRICANE 2 5 9 6 6 9 10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 7 4 5 8 8
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 X X 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 25KT 30KT 35KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GFMX 287N 884W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 5(26) 2(28) 1(29)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) 1(27)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BELIZE 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
GUANAJA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:02 UTC