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Tropical Storm ALEX (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED ALEX AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS A
LITTLE STRONGER...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THERE WERE
SEVERAL SFMR VALUES AROUND 55 KNOTS...AND THIS IS THE VALUE USED
FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST T-NUMBERS WHICH REACHED 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR ALEX TO INTENSIFY MUCH MORE SINCE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. ALEX IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT ONCE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN. ALEX HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE
MEXICAN COAST IN AROUND 96 HOURS.
 
THE CENTER WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EARLIER TODAY BUT NOW THAT
THE STORM IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
PROVIDED A GOOD FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE RELIABLE AND IT IS
ESTIMATED AT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
TO KEEP ALEX ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT.  THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING
THE RELIABLE ECMWF.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 17.3N  87.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.7N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N  92.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  93.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 21.5N  95.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N 101.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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