Tropical Storm ALEX

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
ON  3.0 AND 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TABF AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX LATER TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE
STRENGTHENING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EFFECT OF LAND PRIMARILY AS
THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE
COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ALEX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ALEX MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALEX SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED ALEX ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE
NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.3N  86.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N  87.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N  91.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 22.0N  92.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 23.5N  96.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 24.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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