Hurricane RICK
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HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85
KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 7 50 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 11 24 28 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 7 56 72 61 19 NA NA
HURRICANE 93 43 15 8 2 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 80 39 14 7 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 12 3 1 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 65KT 55KT 50KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 9(12) 26(38) 13(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 6( 9) 23(32) 16(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
LA PAZ 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 8(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
CULICAN 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
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