ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009 800 AM PDT THU OCT 01 2009 OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND SHOWS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS WHICH DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE...PREDICT A LATER TURN AND LESS OF A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATER SOLUTION...BUT DOES SHOW A NORTHEAST TURN BEFORE DISSIPATION...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND BECOME STRONGER THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALSO BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.0N 117.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.4N 119.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.8N 119.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.3N 120.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 21.3N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:29 UTC