ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009 200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DEGRADED CLOUD PATTERN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. NORA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. NORA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 120.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 17.4N 121.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 123.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 124.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.6N 126.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC