ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARTY HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS ARE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT... IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BURST. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. UW CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGEST NEARLY 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS PROVEN ENOUGH TO WEAKEN MARTY IN SPITE OF ITS TRACK OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...MARTY IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER EVEN STRONGER SHEAR BEYOND 12 HOURS...NOT TO MENTION PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO MARTY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. RECENT 0000 UTC FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/08...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED. AS MARTY STEADILY WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY FASTER INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 21.9N 115.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 117.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 22.9N 118.8W 25 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 21/0000Z 22.9N 122.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC