ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009 DESPITE MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...LINDA HAS BEEN ABSENT OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS AND THEREFORE NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON LINDA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AND ULTIMATELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 3 DAYS...OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/04 KT. THE SHALLOW LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A CUT-OFF LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. AFTERWARD...IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH...IT SHOULD BEGIN A TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 20.9N 131.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 12/1200Z 21.1N 132.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/0000Z 21.2N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1200Z 21.4N 133.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z 21.6N 134.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:27 UTC