ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009 THE LAST ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LINDA FADED BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. SSTS OF 25C...SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT RESURGANCE UNLIKELY...AND UNLESS THIS OCCURS LINDA WILL BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE 06Z ASCAT PASS...AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY IS EXPECTED. THE CENTER IS NOW APPARENT ON MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5. A TURN TO THE LEFT IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF LINDA IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS DOWN THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS CAUSES SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TO TURN THE REMNANTS OF LINDA NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UKMET AND ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...TURN LINDA IMMEDIATELY AND SHARPLY WESTWARD AND KEEP IT ON THIS HEADING. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...BUT AT THE MOMENT I PREFER A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 20.6N 130.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 21.2N 131.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 21.7N 132.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1200Z 22.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/1200Z 23.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:27 UTC