Tropical Storm LINDA
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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009
SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0421 UTC
INDICATE THAT LINDA HAS SHEARED APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
NOW PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION.
QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0228 UTC AND ASCAT DATA AT 0628 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL
40-45 KT WIND VECTORS...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING...WITH LINDA EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR. IF THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT MAKE A COMEBACK...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/5. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS LINDA TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
48 HR OR SO ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N141W AND
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS
LINDA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...WITH THE GFS-BASED MODELS CALLING
FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CALLING
FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT AFTER
72 HR.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 20.0N 130.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 20.6N 131.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 21.3N 132.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 21.7N 132.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 22.0N 132.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0600Z 22.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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