ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009 LINDA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA. THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...WITH A RING OF CONVECTION ON MICROWAVE DATA. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...AND BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD START AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS OR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT DISSIPATES LINDA BEYOND 72 HOURS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF LINDA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN LARGER THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.7N 129.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 132.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1800Z 24.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC