Tropical Depression KEVIN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
KEVIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE MOST
RECENT ONE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A
0454 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BAND OF 25-30 KT WINDS OCCURRING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN HAS BEEN ISOLATED
FROM ITS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOURCE OF MOISTURE...AND INFRARED
IMAGERY NOW SHOWS MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN KEVIN...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
THE STEERING FLOW AROUND KEVIN HAS COLLAPSED DUE TO A NEARBY MID-
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/4. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KEVIN SHOULD CEASE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IN A
DAY OR TWO AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...STILL MOVING
VERY SLOWLY. LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST BY 24-48 HOURS
WITH KEVIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.0N 121.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.4N 121.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/1800Z 18.8N 121.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.7N 121.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BERG
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