ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009 800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009 KEVIN IS GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY DRY...AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION. UNLESS THERE IS A RESURGENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...KEVIN WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/05. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIGHT AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFNI AND CANADIAN MODELS DRAW KEVIN OR ITS REMNANTS EASTWARD BEHIND JIMENA...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 16.7N 121.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC