ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF KEVIN...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE PRIMARY BAND HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN PRODUCED BY JIMENA WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...ULTIMATELY TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT KEVIN WILL DISSIPATE IN 96 HOURS OR LESS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/6...WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENT. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...KEVIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREES WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF THE NOGAPS/GFS/GFDL/UKMET AND ECMWF...UPON WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.8N 121.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.4N 121.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 120.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 17.6N 119.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 40 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W 35 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC