Tropical Storm JIMENA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009
AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 2 13
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 3 25
TROPICAL STORM 17 13 8 4 8 27 49
HURRICANE 83 87 92 96 91 69 14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 77 58 36 22 27 36 12
HUR CAT 2 5 22 33 30 29 19 2
HUR CAT 3 1 6 19 32 25 11 1
HUR CAT 4 X 1 3 10 9 3 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT 100KT 90KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) 4(42)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 4(39)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 5(33)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 16(58) 1(59)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) X(19)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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