Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 1 1 4
TROP DEPRESSION 15 17 9 4 3 4 16
TROPICAL STORM 83 76 69 51 37 41 52
HURRICANE 2 6 22 45 60 54 28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 5 18 34 39 35 23
HUR CAT 2 X X 3 7 15 13 4
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 6 5 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 75KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 30(51) 4(55)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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